Risk/Reward Calculator: What Win Rate You Need to Stay Out of the Red
Trading profitability depends not only on how often you’re right, but also on how much you make on a winning trade relative to what you lose on a losing one. The calculator works out the ratio and the break-even point.
Calculated from your inputs. This is not a forecast, not a promise of returns and not investment advice. Real trading results can be anything, including a loss.
How to read the result
Break-even win rate — the minimum share of winning trades at which you break even, including fees. At a 1:2 ratio that’s about 33–35%, at 1:3 — about 25–27%. This is math, not a promise: your real share of winning trades depends on your system and discipline.
Why it matters
- A good trade is one where the target is at least twice as far as the stop.
- Taking profit before the target and holding a loss beyond the stop is the fastest way to ruin your ratio.
- Fees shift your break-even point, which becomes noticeable when you trade often. See crypto exchange fees.
How to set your levels — in the articles take-profit and stop-loss and how to read a trading signal.
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- Target at least twice as far as the stop.
- Break-even win rate — math, not a forecast.
- Always factor in fees.
FAQ
What is the risk/reward ratio?
It’s the ratio of the potential profit to the potential loss in a trade. If the stop is $5 from the entry and the target is $10, the ratio is 1:2.
What win rate do I need at a 1:2 ratio?
Excluding fees — more than 33%. In other words, even if only one trade in three is profitable, you roughly break even.
Can I trade at 1:1 or worse?
You can, but then you need to be right on noticeably more than half of your trades, and fees push the break-even point even further away.
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